[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded on August 11. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska, US, on August 15.

SMM Nickel News on August 11:

Macro News:

Trump and Putin are set to meet in Alaska, US, on August 15. Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement involves a "territorial swap," while Zelenskyy rejected territorial concessions, stating that he "values and fully supports" the joint statement on peace by European leaders. It is reported that the White House is considering inviting Zelenskyy to attend the meeting in Alaska. US Vice President Vance indicated that efforts are underway to determine a date for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, but holding a summit between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders before the "Trump-Putin meeting" is not constructive.

(2) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat YoY. Specifically, it remained flat in urban areas and declined by 0.3% in rural areas. Food prices fell by 1.6%, while non-food prices rose by 0.3%. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. On average, from January to July, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In July, the national CPI increased by 0.4% MoM.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from 121,500 to 124,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,850 yuan/mt, up 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel range from 2,100 to 2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands range from -100 to 300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract rebounded today, continuing to rise in the morning session and touching the 122,000 yuan level. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,990 yuan/mt, up 0.69%.

Weak US non-farm payrolls data have strengthened expectations for an interest rate cut in September. The US and Russian leaders will meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine, with expectations for a geopolitical conflict easing. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, supported by weak fundamentals and macro sentiment, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.